Sunday 29 November, 2020

Update: Rain for SVG, Grenada, Aruba, Curacao & Bonaire

Source: NOAA/NHC

Source: NOAA/NHC

Update July 25, 2020 11 am

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is producing heavy rain across the southern Windward Islands.  

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) in its 11 am AST bulletin says the storm is now located about 55 miles east of Trinidad with maximum sustained winds of 44 miles per hour.  

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...  

  • Tobago 

  • Grenada and its dependencies  

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours.  

Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.  

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK  

----------------------  

At 11 am AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 60.5 West.

Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  

A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected today and tonight.  

On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.  

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.  

Little change in strength is forecast before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands later today.  

Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night.  

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).  

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

----------------------  

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today.  

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela.  

Gonzalo is also expected to produce 1 to 3 inches over the southern Windward Islands, the Leeward Antilles, and the remainder of far northern Venezuela.  

This includes St Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada, Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao. 

Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible in the mountainous terrain of Trinidad and Tobago and far northeastern Venezuela, which may lead to flash flooding. 

 

Update July 25, 2020 8 am 

There is good news for St Vincent and the Grenadines as it is no longer under Tropical Storm warning.  

However, a Tropical Storm warning remains in effect for Grenada and Tobago 

The US National Hurricane Center (NHC) in its 8 am AST bulletin says heavy rain from Tropical Gonzalo is nearing Trinidad and Tobago.  

WATCHES AND WARNINGS  

--------------------  

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...  

The government of Barbados has cancelled the Tropical Storm Warning for St Vincent and the Grenadines.  

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...  

  • Tobago  

  • Grenada and its dependencies  

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------  

At 8 am AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.3 North, longitude 59.8 West. Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  

A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands this afternoon or evening and over the southeastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.  

Little change in strength is forecast before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands later today.  

Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the southeastern Caribbean Sea, and the system is forecast to dissipate by Sunday night or Monday.  

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).  

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area today.  

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Trinidad and Tobago through Sunday night.  

Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches in northeastern Venezuela through Monday. 

 

Update July 24, 2020 5 pm 

Grenada and Tobago have now been upgraded from Tropcial Storm watch to Tropical Storm warning. 

The Tropical Storm warning for Saint Lucia has been cancelled. 

The US National Hurricane Center  (NHC) issued the following in its 5 pm AST advisory (July 24). 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS 

-------------------- 
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... 

The government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Tobago and Grenada. 

The government of St Lucia has cancelled the Tropical Storm Warning for St Lucia. 

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... 

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... 
* Barbados 
* St Vincent and the Grenadines 
* Tobago 
* Grenada and its dependencies 

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within about 24 hours. 
Interests elsewhere in the Windward Islands should monitor the progress of this system. 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK  

----------------------  

At 5 pm AST, the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 55.6 West.  

Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h).  

A general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected for the next couple of days.  

On the forecast track, Gonzalo will move across the southern Windward Islands Saturday afternoon or evening and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.  

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Gonzalo's maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.  

Some slight strengthening is possible before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands.  

Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea and the system is forecast to dissipate early next week.  

Data from the Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).  

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

----------------------  

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area beginning on Saturday.

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night.  

Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela.  

Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

 

Update July 24, 2020, 11 am 

No changes have been made to the advisories issued by the US National Hurricane Center for Barbados, St Vincent and the Grenadines, Grenada and Saint Lucia. 

The NHC issued the following at 11 am AST (July 24) 

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK  

----------------------  

At 11 am AST, the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near latitude 10.0 North, longitude 54.2 West.  

Gonzalo is moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A general westward- to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days.  

On the forecast track, the center of Gonzalo will approach the southern Windward Islands tonight and then move across the islands on Saturday and over the eastern Caribbean Sea on Sunday.  

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. There is considerable uncertainty in the intensity forecast, but some strengthening is still possible during the next day or so before Gonzalo reaches the southern Windward Islands.  

Weakening is expected after Gonzalo moves into the Caribbean Sea, and the cyclone is expected to dissipate by the middle of next week. Gonzalo is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center.  

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).  

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND  

----------------------  

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the Tropical Storm Warning area on Saturday. Hurricane conditions are possible on Saturday within the Hurricane Watch area.  

RAINFALL: Gonzalo is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches in Barbados and the Windward Islands through Sunday night.  

Gonzalo is also expected to produce total rain accumulations of 2 to 4 inches in Trinidad and Tobago as well as 1 to 2 inches over northeastern Venezuela.  

Rainfall in Barbados and the Windward Islands could lead to life-threatening flash floods. 

 

 

Update July 24, 2020 5 am

The Caribbean now has numerous watches and warnings as Tropical Storm Gonzalo moves toward the southern Windward Islands. 

A Tropical storm warning was issued for Saint Lucia with effect from 5 am on July 24. 

The government of Saint Lucia in a statement says Tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within 36 hours. 

On its current track, the center of Tropical Storm Gonzalo is expected to pass near Saint Lucia on Saturday.  

There is still a chance that Gonzalo could become a hurricane before reaching the Windward Islands. 

The US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) further updated its 5 am advisory. 

The NHC says Tiny Gonzalo is expected to bring Tropical Storm conditions to the Southern Windward Islands on Saturday,  

It is located about 645 miles east of the southern Windward Islands with maximum sustained winds of 60 miles per hour.  

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The government of St Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St Lucia.

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm warning for
Barbados, St Vincent and the Grenadines.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* St Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St Vincent and the Grenadines

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Tobago
* Grenada and its dependencies

 

Update July 23, 2020, 5 pm

The National Disaster Management Agency (NaDMA) advises that Grenada and its dependencies are now under Tropical Storm Watch.  

A Tropical Storm Watch means that Tropical Storm conditions are possible for Grenada and its Dependencies in the next 48 hours. 

At 2 pm on July 23, the centre of Tropical Storm Gonzalo was located near 9.7oN latitude 48.8oW longitude or about 890 miles or 1416 km east-southeast of Grenada. 

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is moving West near 22 km/hour and this general motion is expected to continue today. 

Maximum sustained winds are near 95 km/hour with higher gusts. Gonzalo is expected to have an increase in forward speed with a west-northwest track over the weekend.  

For Grenada, 24 hour accumulated average rainfall amounts of 60 mm with locally isolated amounts of 100 mm are possible. 

The storm has weakened slightly over the past few hours and tropical storm force winds extend outward only 35 km from the centre.  

Despite this, citizens are encouraged to remain vigilant and follow the directives issued by the Agency and work to ensure we preserve lives, livelihood and property. 

 

Update July 23, 2020, 4.30 pm 

The National Disaster Management Agency (NaDMA) says Grenada is now under Tropical Storm Watch. 

More details  to be issued soon.

 

Original story:

Last-minute storm preparations are underway in the Caribbean, as the region braces for the onslaught of Gonzalo. 

Barbados and St Vincent and the Grenadines have been placed under Hurricane Watch. The territories are preparing for the worst, as Gonzalo is expected to grow from a tropical storm into a hurricane later today.

Grenada is also keeping close watch over the system.  

All residents in St Vincent and the Grenadines have been urged to make all the necessary preparations for the approach of Gonzalo.

Prime Minister Dr Ralph Gonsalves will host a meeting of the National Emergency Council at 10.30 am. 

Related Article

The St Vincent and the Grenadines Meteorological Services says Gonzalo was centered 910 miles east of the Southern Windward Islands at 8 am.  

The storm is moving towards the west near 12 miles per hour with maximum sustained winds now near 65 miles per hour.  

Shower and thunderstorm activity along with gusty winds ahead of Gonzalo are projected to begin affecting the Lesser Antilles including SVG from today into Friday.  

The current forecast is for the centre of Gonzalo to move across the southern Windward Islands as a Hurricane throughout Saturday (July 25).  

The Met Service says Tropical storm force winds between 40 and 70 miles per hour extend 35 miles from the centre and are anticipated by noon on Saturday.  

Hurricane force winds of approximately 62 to 87 miles per hour with higher gusts are likely to spread across SVG by late Saturday.  

Rainfall accumulations of at least three to four inches (75-100 millimetres) are possible for with isolated higher amounts.  

As a result, flash flooding is likely in low lying areas.  

Fishermen and other small craft operators will also have to be wary as large easterly swells of 3.0 to 4.0 metres are also forecast to accompany the system.  

The Barbados Meteorological Services in its latest forecast says the island remains under Hurricane Watch with Gonzalo located near Latitude 10.0N Longitude 47.0W or about 1403 KM East of Barbados.  

A possible Tropical Storm Watch will be issued for Grenada today.  

Gonzalo as of 5 am was centered approximately 900 miles east southeast of Grenada. 

The Meteorological Service at the Maurice Bishop International Airport in its latest forecast says Grenada and its dependencies should begin feeling the effects of Gonzalo by Saturday (July 25).  

Cloudy and windy conditions accompanied by moderate to heavy showers and thundershowers are expected as well as possible flooding and landslides in areas so prone.  

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